The concluding part of "Climate Change and The Truth" was my 99th entry on this blog, which makes this entry number 100.
The first entry was on Nov. 25, 2006, so I have been writing this blog for 257 days. Therefore, my mean posting rate is 1 entry per 2.57 days or 2.72 entries per week. I will leave any value judgements about these numbers to my readers.
Coincident with this milestone, some friends and I will be going to the Weird Al concert at the Ohio State Fair tomorrow.
"Cost-effectiveness is a key measure for comparing a broad range of options to mitigate the effects of greenhouse warming. Although the full cost of many mitigation measures is difficult to assess, analysis suggests that a variety of energy efficiency and other measures that are now available could reduce U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases by roughly 10 to 40% of current levels at relatively low cost, perhaps at a net cost savings" (Rubin et al.).In this paper, the authors divided proposed measures to reduce greenhouse emissions into two categories. The first category contains measures that are relatively easy to implement with little or negative net cost. Of course, many of them would require a significant initial investment that would be recovered by cost savings over time. For example, a fluorescent light bulb is more expensive than an incandescent bulb, but it uses less electricity and therefore is less expensive to operate. These are the solutions that could achieve a 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at a net savings.
"Climate is generally defined as average weather, and as such, climate change and weather are intertwined. Observations can show that there have been changes in weather, and it is the statistics of changes in weather over time that identify climate change. While weather and climate are closely related, there are important differences. A common confusion between weather and climate arises when scientists are asked how they can predict climate 50 years from now when they cannot predict the weather a few weeks from now. The chaotic nature of weather makes it unpredictable beyond a few days. Projecting changes in climate (i.e., long-term average weather) due to changes in atmospheric composition or other factors is a very different and much more manageable issue. As an analogy, while it is impossible to predict the age at which any particular man will die, we can say with high confidence that the average age of death for men in industrialised countries is about 75. Another common confusion of these issues is thinking that a cold winter or a cooling spot on the globe is evidence against global warming. There are always extremes of hot and cold, although their frequency and intensity change as climate changes. But when weather is averaged over space and time, the fact that the globe is warming emerges clearly from the data" (Somerville, et al.).Many skeptics cite fears of Global Cooling from the 1970's as evidence that climate science is untrustworthy, computerized climate models are unreliable, and current warnings of AGW should not be taken seriously. However, atmospheric scientist Dr. Jerry "Meehl says the models have helped explain one of the great climate mysteries of the twentieth century. The earth warmed significantly in the first five decades of the century, then cooled until the mid-1970s. The industrialized world was pumping out increasing levels of greenhouse gases during the latter period, so why wasn't the temperature increasing? The answer, researchers concluded, was that increased industrial pollution after World War II blocked solar radiation, lowering temperatures and prompting some short-lived speculation about a coming 'ice age'" (Prendergast).
"A characteristic of Earth sciences is that Earth scientists are unable to perform controlled experiments on the planet as a whole and then observe the results. In this sense, Earth science is similar to the disciplines of astronomy and cosmology that cannot conduct experiments on galaxies or the cosmos. This is an important consideration, because it is precisely such whole-Earth, system-scale experiments, incorporating the full complexity of interacting processes and feedbacks, that might ideally be required to fully verify or falsify climate change hypotheses....Nevertheless, countless empirical tests of numerous different hypotheses have built up a massive body of Earth science knowledge. This repeated testing has refined the understanding of numerous aspects of the climate system, from deep oceanic circulation to stratospheric chemistry. Sometimes a combination of observations and models can be used to test planetary-scale hypotheses. For example, the global cooling and drying of the atmosphere observed after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (Section 8.6) provided key tests of particular aspects of global climate models" (Somerville, et al.).Does the assertion that the nature of "atmosphere and related stuff such as the earth and space" make scientific tests impossible contradict the claim that "solid, scientific evidence" would be worthy of serious consideration? In other words, has solid scientific evidence not been presented, or is it impossible to obtain? If it is the latter, then no scientific evidence could convince a skeptic that AGW exists.
The subscript R refers to a reference gas sample and S refers to the sample taken from the present or past atmosphere.
As predicted by the anthropogenic hypothesis, δ13C drops dramatically beginning in the early 1800's.
Again, as predicted by the anthropogenic hypothesis, δ13C decreases with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration.
The upward trend predicted by the models is verified. The observed average is almost always within the predicted range. These models are intended to predict long term trends rather than the average temperature in any individual year. In that respect, this model does well.
